Football is a low-scoring sport, and shot data, particularly on the player-specific level where sample sizes are small, is subject to large amounts of variance. If the model underestimates Cunha’s chance conversion by 25 per cent, his 15-goal tally would be reached in a more plausible 10 per cent of simulations.

Manchester United has made a move for Brentford forward Bryan Mbeumo, a person familiar with the situation told the Associated Press on Thursday. The person spoke on the condition of confidentiality because United has not publicly declared its interest.

Manchester United’s drastic summer rebuild has begun in earnest with the £62.5m capture of Wolves’ Matheus Cunha all but rubber-stamped and the pursuit of Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo in full swing. Following a disastrous season,